Managing Grid Uncertainty with a Smarter Forecasting Platform
Energy operators face growing uncertainty as power sources change. Our client needed better tools to see risks clearly and keep the grid reliable.
Opportunity
Operators needed a single platform to combine forecasts, assess risk, and protect reliability in a changing energy landscape.
Services
Results
- Modernized legacy forecasting tools
- Winter reliability report delivered early
- Faster, risk-informed decisions
Client
One of North America’s Largest Grid Operators
Our client manages the electric grid across 15 U.S. states and Manitoba, Canada. They oversee one of the largest energy markets in the world, handling about $22 billion in energy transactions each year. Their role is to keep electricity reliable and affordable for millions of homes and businesses.
The organization makes sure the right amount of electricity is generated and delivered to member utilities so it can be sold to consumers at a fair price. In 2023, after eight years since our last project together, they re-engaged with SEP to address the growing challenges of grid reliability and energy forecasting.
Our client operates one of the largest energy markets in the world, ensuring reliable electricity for millions of people.
About the Client
Industry
Energy & Utilities
Employees
501-1,000
Type
Non-Profit
Market
North America
Opportunity
Navigating Uncertainty in a Changing Energy Landscape
Renewables and extreme weather are reshaping the energy mix. This created rising uncertainty in grid operations. Operators needed to anticipate factors like weather patterns, power plant output, and renewable capacity to avoid risks such as demand spikes, low production, or potential brownouts.
Many existing tools were outdated and unsupported, leaving operators to work with fragmented forecasts. Without a unified view of risk, decision-making slowed—especially during critical times like winter storms.
The Operations Uncertainty Platform was designed to bring all forecasts together in one place. By combining weather, demand, and renewable data—and applying machine learning models—the platform would give operators the situational awareness to manage the grid with confidence.
The Uncertainty Platform combines weather, demand, and renewable forecasts to help operators prevent outages.
What We Did
Architecture
Cloud Development
Data
Product Discovery
Product Roadmapping
Strategy
Solution
Designing a Cloud-Based Uncertainty Platform
SEP worked with the client to design and build the Operations Uncertainty Platform. We created a scalable architecture, tested what was possible, and set a clear roadmap. From the start, we involved control room operators so the platform would match their workflows and give them the situational awareness they needed.
Building Tools Operators Can Trust
Early development focused on bringing forecast data into Azure Synapse Analytics and visualizing it with Power BI. The Operations Forecast Dashboard was one of the first tools, combining weather, load, and renewable scenarios with actual readings. It now includes Load Pocket insights, giving operators a clearer view of local risks.
Cold-weather reliability was another priority. The Fail-to-Start Report helps operators anticipate generator issues in freezing conditions. With its mapping feature, the tool was delivered ahead of schedule to support operations before winter storms arrived.
The Net Uncertainty Report adds machine learning outputs to show commitment thresholds and Short Term Reserve requirements for the next day. Delivered through Power BI and email, it gave operators fast access to critical insights.
The outdated Similar Day Tool was also rebuilt in Synapse and Power BI. The new version makes forecast checks faster and easier while uncovering new operator use cases for future versions.
Strengthening the Engineering Foundation
Behind the scenes, SEP improved the engineering environment. A GitHub Action was created to convert messy JSON notebook files into Python, making code reviews smoother. A robust testing framework was also built for Synapse. These practices strengthened the platform and were shared with internal teams.
Looking ahead, the roadmap includes adding manual overrides, API integration, and expanding the Similar Day Tool. Planned features like intra-day monitoring, solar and cloud cover reports, and automated alerts will keep improving operator awareness and decision-making.
The platform helps operators see risks clearly and act faster.
Tech Stack
Azure
Results
A Modern Platform for Smarter Energy Decisions
The custom uncertainty platform gave operators a unified, data-driven view of grid risk. By modernizing critical forecasting tools and delivering winter reliability features early, the platform supported faster, risk-informed decisions when they mattered most. Engineering improvements also set a strong foundation for future enhancements, from APIs to advanced monitoring.
The Fail-to-Start Report was ready before winter storms hit, giving operators extra time to prepare.
Faster, risk-informed operator decisions
Winter reliability report delivered early
Legacy forecasting tools modernized
Forecast checks faster and easier
Stronger foundation for future features