I’m worried about the iOS app industry.
Not because I see signs of Apple dying, but because I know how technology fads go. That, and because I’ve worked on almost nothing but iOS apps the past few years. I don’t want my domain of “expertise” to fizzle out over the next few years.
Technology fads come and go. Will iOS be next? Let’s look at some past examples of fad tech:
AOL Instant Messenger
Back in the early 00’s, everybody was doing it. I still have my AIM account from way back. As far as instant communication went on the internet, AIM was the way to go. But today I can’t think of anyone who uses it.MySpace
Again, back in the early 00’s, everybody was doing it. Even I had a MySpace page. These days, from what I hear only indie music groups have MySpace pages.SEGA
SEGA was one of the major video game companies. If I was a developer that made SEGA games, I was doing pretty well. But then everybody stopped buying SEGA.
But there are plenty of counterexamples showing that not everything goes away:
GameBoy**
** Okay, technically the GameBoy is no more. But really, who’s going to argue that the Nintendo 3DS isn’t just GameBoy evolved into something newer and better?Laptop Computers**
** These have been around for as long as I can remember (no really, my dad had a laptop when I was in elementary school). Sales of these guys has certainly gone down over time as tablet sales have risen, but there still exists a fairly large market where full-blown mobile computers are a necessity.
So one thing is clear: the future of iOS app development is uncertain. I don’t really believe it’s going to go away anytime soon – consumers are relying more and more on electronics that come with them and iOS is as strong a contender as ever – but I wouldn’t try to build a business that relies solely on iOS. Why? Because you never know. Keep your horizons open. Android is now leading the mobile device market, desktop applications still exist, and web applications are more popular than ever.
As a developer, I’m going to continue learning and practicing all kinds of software development. For my next trick, I shall learn the new ways of web development in the context of responsive web design.
Because you just never know, the possibilities for our future are actually endless. Diversify your skill sets and survive!
See this post and more on my personal blog at blog.aaron-milam.com.
